Standing Uncertainty: An Expected-Value Standard for Fear-Based Injury in Clapper v. Amnesty International USA

The Supreme Court has held that a plaintiff can have Article III standing based on a fear of future harm, or fear-based injury. The Court’s approach to fear-based injury, however, has been unclear and inconsistent. This Note seeks to clarify the Court’s doctrine using principles from probability theory. It contends that fear-based injury should be governed by a substantial-risk standard that encapsulates the probability concept of expected value. This standard appears in footnote 5 of Clapper v. Amnesty International USA, a recent case in which the Court held that a group of plaintiffs lacked standing to challenge the constitutionality of a section of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978. This Note begins by tracing three competing lines of doctrine within the Court’s jurisprudence on fear-based injury and analyzes them using probability theory, arriving at a tripartite framework. After applying this framework to Clapper, this Note concludes that footnote 5’s substantial-risk standard should govern fear-based injury. Finally, this Note argues that the substantial-risk standard should be informed by an expected-value inquiry and justifies this proposal through precedent, probability principles, and practical concerns

Standing Uncertainty: An Expected-Value Standard for Fear-Based Injury in Clapper v. Amnesty International USA

The Supreme Court has held that a plaintiff can have Article III standing based on a fear of future harm, or fear-based injury. The Court’s approach to fear-based injury, however, has been unclear and inconsistent. This Note seeks to clarify the Court’s doctrine using principles from probability theory. It contends that fear-based injury should be governed by a substantial-risk standard that encapsulates the probability concept of expected value. This standard appears in footnote 5 of Clapper v. Amnesty International USA, a recent case in which the Court held that a group of plaintiffs lacked standing to challenge the constitutionality of a section of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978. This Note begins by tracing three competing lines of doctrine within the Court’s jurisprudence on fear-based injury and analyzes them using probability theory, arriving at a tripartite framework. After applying this framework to Clapper, this Note concludes that footnote 5’s substantial-risk standard should govern fear-based injury. Finally, this Note argues that the substantial-risk standard should be informed by an expected-value inquiry and justifies this proposal through precedent, probability principles, and practical concerns

Calcium-Rich Gap Transients: Tidal Detonations of White Dwarfs?

We hypothesize that at least some of the recently discovered class of calcium-rich gap transients are tidal detonation events of white dwarfs (WDs) by black holes (BHs) or possibly neutron stars. We show that the properties of the calcium-rich gap transients agree well with the predictions of the tidal detonation model. Under the predictions of this model, we use a follow-up X-ray observation of one of these transients, SN 2012hn, to place weak upper limits on the detonator mass of this system that include all intermediate-mass BHs (IMBHs). As these transients are preferentially in the stellar haloes of galaxies, we discuss the possibility that these transients are tidal detonations of WDs caused by random flyby encounters with IMBHs in dwarf galaxies or globular clusters. This possibility has been already suggested in the literature but without connection to the calcium-rich gap transients. In order for the random flyby cross-section to be high enough, these events would have to be occurring inside these dense stellar associations. However, there is a lack of evidence for IMBHs in these systems, and recent observations have ruled out all but the very faintest dwarf galaxies and globular clusters for a few of these transients. Another possibility is that these are tidal detonations caused by three-body interactions, where a WD is perturbed toward the detonator in isolated multiple star systems. We highlight a number of ways this could occur, even in lower-mass systems with stellar-mass BHs or neutron stars. Finally, we outline several new observational tests of this scenario, which are feasible with current instrumentation.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, accepted for publication in MNRA

Antlia B: A faint dwarf galaxy member of the NGC 3109 association

We report the discovery of Antlia B, a faint dwarf galaxy at a projected distance of $\sim$72 kpc from NGC 3109 ($M_{V}$$\sim$$-$15 mag), the primary galaxy of the NGC 3109 dwarf association at the edge of the Local Group. The tip of the red giant branch distance to Antlia B is $D$=1.29$\pm$0.10 Mpc, which is consistent with the distance to NGC 3109. A qualitative analysis indicates the new dwarf's stellar population has both an old, metal poor red giant branch ($\gtrsim$10 Gyr, [Fe/H]$\sim$$-$2), and a younger blue population with an age of $\sim$200-400 Myr, analogous to the original Antlia dwarf, another likely satellite of NGC 3109. Antlia B has \ion{H}{1} gas at a velocity of $v_{helio,HI}$=376 km s$^{-1}$, confirming the association with NGC 3109 ($v_{helio}$=403 km s$^{-1}$). The HI gas mass (M$_{HI}$=2.8$\pm$0.2$\times$10$^{5}$ M$_{\odot}$), stellar luminosity ($M_{V}$=$-$9.7$\pm$0.6 mag) and half light radius ($r_{h}$=273$\pm$29 pc) are all consistent with the properties of dwarf irregular and dwarf spheroidal galaxies in the Local Volume, and is most similar to the Leo P dwarf galaxy. The discovery of Antlia B is the initial result from a Dark Energy Camera survey for halo substructure and faint dwarf companions to NGC 3109 with the goal of comparing observed substructure with expectations from the $\Lambda$+Cold Dark Matter model in the sub-Milky Way regime.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to ApJ